Republicans must move right to capture the White House
To the editor:
With the primaries and caucuses a few short months away, it is becoming crunch time for the Republican Party to begin the official process of choosing their candidate for the White House. It is looking more and more likely that despite all of Hillary and Bill Clintons’ lies, deceits and criminal findings, Hillary will be the Democratic candidate for the White House. The Republican Party must choose a conservative nominee to have any chance of winning the White House. They must either go conservative or go home. Because the conservative voter base will either demand a conservative nominee or stay home on Election Day.
This thesis and premise defies the conventional and mainstream media espousing that only with a moderate choice do the Republicans have a chance. The “drive by” media demands that a clear conservative candidate has no chance, and only with a moderate candidate picking up moderate voters can the Republicans win. Not true, at least not true according to recent modern political Electoral College history.
General thinking is that Red States will always go with the conservative Republican presidential nominee, while Blue States will almost always go with the liberal Democrat nominee. Therefore, it is only the Purple States in play. The Purple States are those in-between states that the popular vote will be somewhere between 52-48 percent. And it is those Purple States, not conservative and not liberal, that the presidential nominee must win. Conventional wisdom is Purple State means moderate state and thus only a moderate nominee for the White House can win those states. And thus the Electoral College map.
Conventional reasonable wisdom is actually wrong according to history. Moderate Republican candidates for the White House almost always lose the Purple States while conservative Republican candidates almost always win Purple States. Recent modern presidential voting is very clear and factual on this Electoral College history. Since the end of World War II, conservative Republican nominees such as Eisenhower, Nixon, Reaga, and Bush-43 have become the president of the USA. While moderate candidates such as Dole, McCain and Romney have not been called “Mr. President.” One very interesting point is that when Bush-41, “Read my lips, no new taxes,” ran as a conservative, he won. But once he actually raised taxes and looked like a moderate, he lost to a perceived moderate for reelection to Bill Clinton.
Two crucial states in the upcoming Electoral College map are Florida and Ohio. It is hard to see a map of the Electoral College where the Republican nominee wins without winning both Ohio and Florida, both Purple States. Again, back to the history of Republican moderate candidates, they consistently lose Florida and Ohio. Bush-41, for re-election, lost Ohio while he had won it 4 years earlier. Dole, McCain and Romney all three lost both Ohio and Florida; going 0-6. When there is perceived to be little difference between a moderate Republican and a perceived moderate Democrat, the Democrat almost always wins, especially in Purple States. No difference means no Republican.
It appears that with the eight years of President Obama’s extreme liberal, socialist agenda, most Republicans get it. The most recent issues seem to be an advantage to the conservative Republican candidates. The problems with ISIS, Paris and open borders with little vetting appear to hurt the moderate Republican candidates. Although, not to the “D.C to Wall Street” Jeb and Kasich establishment crowd. Those issues have had little effect on the establishment donor class. But the Republican conservative voter base is connecting these dangerous issues. The polls over the last year have consistently shown the perceived conservative candidates of Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Carson to be way out in front. While the perceived moderate candidates of Jeb, Kasich and Christie to be far behind. The donor establishment class of the Republican party appears to want a moderate ticket of Jeb and Kasich. While the conservative voter base seem to know their political Electoral College map history and will not make that mistake again. A conservative Republican ticket combination of Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and/or Carson, could turn Florida and Ohio very Red in 2016.
Andrew William Coy
Cape Coral